Andreas Graefe

Of Issues and Leaders: Forecasting the 2020 US Presidential Election

The PollyVote Popular Vote Forecast for the 2020 US Presidential Election

Automated Journalism: A Meta-Analysis of Readers’ Perceptions of Human-Written in Comparison to Automated News

Accuracy of German federal election forecasts, 2013 & 2017.

Good referees are not nice. Personality effects on football referee decision-making.

Influence of expertise and game time on football referee decisions.

When Referees See Red: Decision Accuracy of Football Referees.

Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries.

Automatisch interessant? Der Einfluss von Involvement auf die Wahrnehmung computergenerierter Texte

Burst of the filter bubble? Effects of personalization on the diversity of Google News

Wertschöpfung mithilfe von Algorithmen: Ansatzpunkte für die Veränderung von Geschäftsmodellen durch Computational Journalism

Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals.

Readers’ perception of computer-generated news: Credibility, expertise, and readability.

Testing the Predictive Validity of Multiple Regression Analysis.

Automatisierter Journalismus: Anwendungsbereiche, Formen und Qualität.

Ansatzpunkte für die Veränderung von Geschäftsmodellen durch Computational Journalism.

A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts

Political markets

Automated news: Better than expected?

Assessing the 2016 U.S. presidential election popular vote forecasts

The PollyVote’s long-term forecast for the 2017 German federal election

Prediction market performance in the 2016 U.S. presidential election

Persuasion principles index: Ready for pretesting advertisement

Guide to Automated Journalism

Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys

Predictive validity of evidence-based persuasion principles

The PollyVote forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election

Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump

German election forecasting: Comparing and combining methods for 2013

Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors

Aktuelles Stichwort: Computational Journalism

Golden Rule of Forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative

Limitations of ensemble Bayesian model averaging for forecasting social science problems

Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote

Combining forecasts: An application to elections

Forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election based on candidates’ perceived competence in handling the most important issue

Accuracy of vote expectation surveys in forecasting elections

Forecasting

Combined forecasts of the 2012 election: The PollyVote

Forecasting elections from voters' perceptions of candidates' ability to handle issues

Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections